Millions in Australia's east face natural disaster risk

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Millions in Australia's east face natural disaster risk

By Shane Wright & Felicity Caldwell

More than 400,000 Melbourne residents face high risks of flooding, bushfires or both, new analysis shows, with warnings that without pre-emptive action even more people will face threats posed by natural disasters.

Analysis mapping insurance data and risk levels from natural perils across local government areas in Victoria, NSW and Queensland reveals millions of residents across the three states are living with some sort of risk from floods, storms, bushfires and earthquakes.

Compiled by SGS Economics and Planning and released exclusively to The Age, the data breaks down the risk to local council areas and the potential economic impact from natural disasters.

SGS national partner Terry Rawnsley said much of the Australian population was at some form of natural peril.

Governments need to do more to mitigate natural disasters, says SGS principal Terry Rawnsley.

Governments need to do more to mitigate natural disasters, says SGS principal Terry Rawnsley.Credit: SGS Economics and Planning

While governments had gone to substantial lengths to manage the impact of such risks, large parts of the country were still exposed, with the focus being on rebuilding and repairing rather than protecting communities, Mr Rawnsley said.

More than 1.6 million Sydney residents face high risks of flooding, bushfires or both, and 2 million Brisbane residents face extreme risks from tropical cyclones, flooding or both, according to the analysis.

Mr Rawnsley said all governments had focused too much on post-disaster reconstruction while investing too little in mitigation.

‘‘The rebalance of this spending allocation is a national priority. Investment in mitigation strategies reduces the cost of reconstruction and safeguards our communities.

‘‘Without heightened awareness, appropriate information and a co-ordinated, long-term approach to managing risks, individuals, businesses and government will remain exposed and our future economic strength and stability will be at risk,’’ he said.

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Flooding near Shepparton in 2010.

Flooding near Shepparton in 2010. Credit: Angela Wylie

Across the greater Melbourne area, the analysis suggests 220,000 people – many living in areas such as Eltham, Greensborough, Wallan, Lilydale and Belgrave – have a high risk of bushfire, with another 266,000 at medium risk.

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The highest risk of bushfire in the state is faced by 243,000 people in areas such as Daylesford, Castlemaine, Maryborough, Euroa, Bright, Mansfield and Yea.

Central Melbourne is considered to have a high risk of flooding. Maribyrnong is also named as at risk.

Irrigation areas around Shepparton, with a combined annual economic output of $3.2 billion, are categorised as at high risk of flooding.

Euroa and Benalla plus Bright and Myrtleford in the Ovens River valley are rated as having substantial flooding risks.

Across the greater Sydney area there are 317,000 people in council areas facing high bushfire risks.
Another 484,000 are in medium risk areas. Some of these people also live in areas considered to be at very high risk of flooding.

Outside Sydney there are another 1.7 million people in NSW at risk of flooding, with many of these living in areas along the north coast.

Mr Rawnsley said governments were not solely responsible for responses to natural disaster threats, pointing to the royal commission into Victoria’s Black Saturday bushfires, which highlighted the importance of ‘‘shared responsibility’’.

About 610,000 people in parts of northern Queensland live with the extreme risk posed by cyclones.
Cyclones including Yasi and Debbie have caused billions of dollars in damage over recent years.

Cyclone Yasi caused more than $3.5 billion in damage to key industries across Queensland in 2011

Cyclone Yasi caused more than $3.5 billion in damage to key industries across Queensland in 2011Credit: AAP/Dave Hunt

They pose a very high risk to about 602,000 people in Brisbane and 1.3 million people living in areas such as Gladstone, Gympie, Maryborough and the Gold Coast.

More than 4.4 million people in NSW and Queensland live in local council areas with extreme or high risk of cyclones.

A few parts of Victoria and NSW are considered to be at the highest-rated risk of earthquake. The most economically valuable are the South Gippsland, Baw Baw and LaTrobe council areas of Victoria, which combined produce $8.1 billion of economic activity.

Research published by the Australian Journal of Emergency Management last year highlighted the growing risk posed by bushfires and heatwaves, which now account for about two-thirds of all natural disaster-related deaths.

The cost of bushfires as a proportion of all natural disasters has doubled over the past 40 years to now almost equal that of tropical cyclones.

Queensland is the most natural disaster-prone state in the country, just ahead of NSW, although there has been an increase in Victoria.

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